Search This Blog

Saturday, June 10, 2023

Guide to this Blog

WELCOME

This blog will post articles on political events around the world, those in Europe, Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and the U.S. in particular. Discourse in political philosophy, in democracy and globalization is welcome. Comments simply indicating agreement or disagreement with views will not be posted.
Please identify the source, 'sociopoliticalviews.blogspot.com', when quoting from or referring to any material in this blog, in conformity with copyright rules.

GUIDE TO THIS BLOG'S CONTENT

The increasing number of visitors of this Blog, sociopoliticalviews, made it necessary to provide the visitors with a faster navigation possibility in their particular area of interest. This guide has been prepared to meet that need. Articles are grouped, herebelow, under their subject labels in a chronological order, and summaries are offered for each of them.
This occasion has been used also to correct editorial errors made in avoiding delays in posting the articles.

Middle East policies
Union? Which Union? (1997)
Turkey insists on joining the EU. EU is unwilling to admit Turkey. While there are several told and untold reasons for keeping Turkeyat the door, one is the Cyprus controversy between Turkey and Greece. Although Greece is a problem child of the EU, the EU cannot turn its back to Greece, and side with Turkey. EU is aware that union will mean a source of unending feud between Greeks and Turks. Thus, EU leaves the problem to be solved by the effect of time, may it be by the North’s de facto statehood with ties to Turkey.
Selling the freedom of other people for the price of oil (2002)
Pres. Bush’s support of Putin’s suppression of Chechen liberation in exchange of the latter’s support in Iraq, as reported by the WPost, is outrageous. First, the purpose of the Iraq campaign is dubious. Second, since when Russia has been a freedom defender that she is asked to support freedom in Iraq? Especially, Bush’s alleged bribe to Russia that oil prices will be kept high, shows the true purpose of the Iraq campaign: to enrich the oil industry.
The Concepts of the Turkish Model and the Greater Middle East Initiative (2004)
The US’ Greater ME Initiative has been introduced to stop the spread of militant Islam, and Turkey has been showcased as a model for moderate Islam. Firstly, no religion in general, and Islam in particular, can be influenced by external intervention, without creating the opposite effect. Second, if Turkey is taken as model because of its secularism, the western style secularism is not effective for keeping Islam out of politics. Third, Muslim countries would not accept Turkey as model, because they despise it for having abolished the Caliphate. Promotion of education and gender equality in Muslim countries would be better avenues to bring moderation to Islam.
Nuclear Diplomacy in the Middle East (2006)
The U.S. rallies international sanctions on Iran under suspicion of development of nuclear weapon capability, while offering assistance to India for the development of nuclear energy production. Nuclear weapon is more a military deterrent. Thus, it has a diplomatic leverage use. Nevertheless, by its own nature, it triggers proliferation. Its development needs to be stopped. A country’s nuclear aspiration may be assessed against the backdrop of that country’s political profile.
India went nuclear because it objects, as matter of principle, to the inequality inherent in NPT, and for defense and deterrence against China’s nuclear weapons. Pakistan acquired them for defense and deterrence against India, because of mutual territorial claims. Israel acquired them also for defensive reasons against its hostile neighbors. Iran is suspect of developing the capability because of U enrichment activities, allegedly for power generation. But, Iran has tense relations with all countries in the ME, except for Pakistan, and with the West; although no threats against it. Therefore, it is understandable that Iran may have intentions for non-peaceful use. The method to dissuade Iran must be, therefore, not by threats, but by reducing tension and creating security in the region.
The Third Dimension in the Middle East Drama (2008)
A drama was staged in the ME by the Western interest in oil reserves of the region. Introduction of Israel onto the stage made the scenario more complex. Then, the U.S. jump on the stage in Iraq enflamed dormant Sunni-Shiite conflict. Kurds are called to help clear the stage. In doing so, Kurds brought more problems onto the stage. The drama continues; it may end as a tragedy, or with a little happier tone if Iraq becomes a federated state in which Kurds will find their independence.
Turkish-Israeli Encounter in the Middle East (2010)
All parties to the recent deadly incident in the Mediterranean should be held accountable. Israel for having used excessive force resulting in death; the organizers of the so-called humanitarian aid for having the intentions of delivering the aid to Hamas instead of Palestinians and thus deliberately provoking Israel; the Turkish government for having allowed and maybe even for encouraging the show for scoring points with the Palestinians and the entire Muslim world.
Arab Revolution (2011)
Recent uprisings in some Muslim countries appear to be motivated by the poor economic conditions of citizens and the long autocratic rule of dictators. In the turbulent aftermath of revolutions, the most popular ideology will prevail. In the current worldwide surge of religiosity, particularly of Islam, the Islamic ideology will be the winner. The Western world will try to counter it by promoting democracy, but self-rule runs against the autocratic/subservient philosophy of Islam. Whereas, the promotion of human rights may be more acceptable to masses, and may open the way to democracy from within.
Syria and not “Greater” but “Compacted” Middle East Project (2013)
Bush administration’s ill-conceived policy of “moderating” Islam through democracy and freedom brought instead radicals to power in Muslim countries. Artificially created states in the ME by the West after WWI to secure the area’s oil exploration and production failed and imploded in the absence of basic requirements for statehood. They cannot be put together again to ensure enough stability in the area. An international conference of all parties concerned could establish an international militarily free zone of trade and finance center for the entire ME.
The Middle East Imbroglio (2015)
The seeds of the ME chaos have been planted by the power vacuum created by, and the disregard for local realities perpetrated by the victors of WWI. A brutal religious group is now trying to fill in the vacuum caused by the failed states artificially implanted by the victors of WWI. We need to focus on eliminating the savage criminals who are a threat to humanity. If we concern ourselves with saving the population from the atrocities of their dictator in Syria, we may create more problems as we already did in the neighboringIraq, as well as in Libya. Since these savages claim to be operating in the name of Islam, let the Muslim world fight them to save their religion from disrepute.

Militant Islam
Public Diplomacy and Terrorism (2001)
Incredibly savage attack on World Trade Center and the Pentagon opened our eyes to the extent of the Islamic terrorism. An internationally agreed definition of such acts and of action against them is required. The Islamic anger towards the Western world might be motivated by their having stayed behind the advanced world. The more effective way of fighting against the Islamic terrorism might consist of a campaign for education in Muslim countries, along with the current campaign for democracy.
Militant Islam and Atatürk’s Political Philosophy (2002)
Islamic philosophy is antithetic to individualism, thus to liberal thinking, therefore to progress. Accordingly, the Muslim world found itself left behind the prospering world, which caused its resentment of the rest. In political terms, exploitation by British colonialism, instead of modernization, also contributed to Muslim alienation. Freedom and democracy being Western values will not defeat Islam. Replacing religious education with one for rational and liberal thinking, as Atatürk did, may disarm militant Islam.
The Concepts of the Turkish Model and the Greater Middle East Initiative (2004)
(See under 1 above)
Political Islam (2006)
The carnage of 9/11 woke us up to the reality of political Islam. That Islam is a religion with political ideology. Religion is in politics also in Western (Christian) countries, although they are secular. Secularism is not a complete separation of church and state, it is a compromise, a balance between the two. Turkish Islamist government is a good example of using secularism as a means to secure the grip of Islam over politics. The real separation of church and state requires the supremacy of intellect and science, not that of God.
The Middle East Imbroglio (2015)
(See under 1 above)

Religion in politics
Some Problems Imbedded in the US Constitution (2003)
(See under 7 below)
The Bogus of “Alliance of Civilizations” (2005)
The UN Sec. Gen. introduced “the dialogue between civilizations” to counter the Islamic militancy, and charged the Spanish PM to lead the initiative. The latter joined with the Turkish PM. The choice must have been based on the false premise that the Turkish PM represents a “moderate Islam”. The Turkish PM grabbed the opportunity of gaining international recognition to portray himself as the leader of the Muslim world, and to advance his Islamist agenda. The current Islamic violence is not the “clash of civilizations”. Their violence is based on their realization of having fallen behind the ever-advancing civilization, which they want to overcome by force. The idea of “moderate Islam” will exacerbate the spread of Islamists.
Political Islam (2006)
(See under 2 above)
Is some Religion Running in your Arteries? (2011)
The “Gulen movement” operates in the US and worldwide for the alleged purpose of “interfaith dialogue” by opening schools and businesses. Businessmen find their way, through community work, to domestic politics with the objective of interjecting Muslim beliefs in politics. The motto is “you must move in the arteries of the system without anyone noticing your existence until you reach all the power centers”. Accordingly, the volunteers operate peacefully, cooperate with authorities, and denounce violence, including militant Islam. The leader is operating out of the US, because this will give credibility to the movement’s global extension. The US is giving him support in the belief that “interfaith dialogue” will help the administration’s “moderate Islam” policy adopted after 9/11.
Secularism and the Separation of Church and State (2011)
The real separation of Church and State, which is a tenet of democracy, is not observed even in most democracies. The most obvious examples are the use of religion in international policies to counter the spread of the atheist communism or of Islamic militancy, its wide use in domestic politics to win elections, the reliance on religious establishments to provide social services in order to save on public funds, and the fusion of freedom of religion with freedom of expression. Secularism practiced in democracies does not separate Church and State; it is a co-existence. Democracy stands on debate, accountability, diversity and change; religion is not debatable, accountable, diverse or progressive.
Reason, a Prerequisite for Lasting Peace (2016)
The suggestion that many international conflicts are because of the meddling of religion in state affairs is true in view of the historical facts. However, it is also true that even secular governments make wars. Secularism does not avoid wars, because secularism is not a true separation of Church and State. It is no more than a dualism born out of a compromise after centuries of warring between the two. Two leaders in history did not go to war during their tenure, though they achieved international successes: Jefferson and Ataturk. Both believed in true separation, laicism. But, their successor governments could not sustain peace. I conclude that peace may be sustainable if the public as a whole believes in the true separation of Church and State, not only the leaders.

Case Study in religion in politics
Archaic Dogma or Rational Progress (2004)
Turkey has been trying incessantly to expand religious education since 1948, when it was first introduced in an election challenge. Consequently, there has been a steady degradation in the social field, and no advancement in science and technology. Reform in religion will not change this fact, nor will the dualist secular system (both promoted by the West). Social progress requires rational education, science and technology.
The Concepts of the Turkish Model and the Greater Middle East Initiative (2004)
(See under 1 above)
Adulteration of Turkish National Identity (2009)
The national identity of Turks has changed over the decades since the founding of the Republic. Now the party in power wants to change the Constitution to conform it to the identity changes that the party has achieved, like religiosity in place of laicism, autocracy in place of democracy, ethnic and sectarian identities in place of unity.
Islamization of Turkey (2010)
Regarding a Stratfor article with the same title. Islamization in Turkey is the result of multi-party politics since its inception in 1945. Islamization was achieved by restructuring the society from modernity to religiosity, and consequently by transferring the power from the educated elite to religious masses. Drawing attention to the danger closer to home in the U.S. with reference to the Gulen movement headquartered in the U.S. is important. The objective of the Turkish foreign policy is also to strengthen Islam worldwide through trade relations.
Nationalism a la Turca (2012)
Turkey’s current Islamist government claims to be also nationalist. They must mean a reinterpretation of Turkish nationalism, as they reinterpret all other constitutional principles to legitimate their political agenda. Since they do not hide their Ottomanist aspirations, they must mean religion based “ummet”. Because, Turkishness was suppressed in favor of the “ummet” system, after Sultan’s acquisition of the Caliph’s mentle in the 16th century. Nationalism fomented in the Ottoman lands by the European powers as of the 19th century in order to bring it down brought to light also Turkish nationalism. The current reality is that the Turkish nationalism fell victim to Islamists.
Ras-Putin and Turkey a la Putinese (2012)
While all empires have collapsed, Putin gives all the indications that he is working to revive the Russian empire. We see a similar phenomenon in Turkey. The Turkish PM also formed an autocracy in Putin style, which controls businesses and media. Unlike Putin, the PM openly declares religious politics and Ottomanism. The West will have a taste of Turkey a la Putinese.
Getting off a Streetcar Named De(mocracy) at Gezi Station (2013)
Turkey’s one party rule brought to power repeatedly by a solid majority of voters is a one-man rule. His undeclared but clear objective is (expressed in public statements and actions) to veer Turkey away from its never completed modernization, and to revert to a religious Ottomanism. Changes in the education system, in language, in women’s status, in freedom of expression, overwhelming promotion of religiosity, dismantling of Republican reforms, and revival of anything Ottoman are indications of nearing his destination. He declared once, “democracy is like a streetcar; you disembark once you reach your destination”. The overwhelming police force used on Gezi protestors shows that he is now ready to get off the streetcar named democracy.
Turkish Resistance (2014)
The Turkish Republican reforms’ objective was to enable the society to participate in the contemporary civilization. Whether this objective is reached may be determined by looking at the current state of education, women’s status, and democracy in Turkey. Education has been oriented to “raising pious generations”, with the result that about 2/3 of the population is partially or totally uneducated. Women are pressured to stay out of public, to marry early, are subject to domestic abuse more than before including honor killing, with the result that Turkey is listed 125th on the World Gender Gap Index. A police state has been formed to fight freedom of speech, with the result that Turkey has the highest number of incarcerated journalists. In international relations, Turkeyaligned with the backward Muslim states of the ME, and rose up to the West and international organizations. Turks either support or acquiesce to this state of affairs, because they never learned the democratic duty of participation in governance. 1/3 of civil societies are mosque building societies, not civil issues societies. Turks’ resistance to Republican reforms must change to resistance to retrogression.
A Parody of Comparing Tayyip with Atatürk (2016)
An article in Politico’s European edition shows lack of knowledge of Turkey’s history and current status. “Populism” of both leaders is diametrically opposed: Atatürk instilled Turkishness in the people, the current president uses it for division between Turks and Kurds. The “Egalitarianism” of the two leaders is also very different: the former promoted it for unity and solidarity in the nation, the latter uses it for demagoguery. The observation that the president made villagers masters where Atatürk failed is utterly wrong. Atatürk during his short leadership set “villagers are masters” principle, the following administrations did not achieve it, democracy brought by Atatürk enabled villagers to elect the current president to power.
A Legal Assessment of Transition from the Ottomans to Turkish Republic (2020)
At the end of WWI armistice agreements were signed with each vanquished state by a different victorious power and with different degree of severity. The one with the vanquished Ottoman state was concluded by the leading victorious power Britain. The stark differences in this armistice compared with the others shows a glaring arrogance of Britain against the Ottoman state. It is the demeaning terms that helped spark the Turkish liberation war (Like the ominous Peace Treaty signed with defeated Germany later created the Nazism and WWII). Atatürk led an exhausted nation to reorganize and fight. He carefully and patiently observed the legality of the liberation. He called a national parliament to convene after the Ottoman parliament was raided by British occupying forces and closed by the Sultan. The national parliament could then declare the end of Sultan's reign and assume the sovereign power by merely amending the Ottoman Constitution. The declaration of the republican regime in 1923 came after all the occupying foreign forces were militarily defeated in 1922 and the Peace Treaty gave international recognition to the new state in 1923. The sensitive issue for a devout Muslim population, the religious legal system and Caliphate, was abolished in 1924 after the new state's authority was soundly established.  

Democracy-Social Justice-Education
Adulteration of Capitalism (2009)
All socio-political theories eventually fail in practice, because humans corrupt them. Businesses are ultimately public services. Therefore, they should be held accountable like governments are held. Unreasonable exorbitant benefits paid to corporate executives are nothing less than capitalists stealing the capital entrusted to them by the public. Regulating their benefits would not be any different than regulating other areas of businesses. Debt based capitalism, instead of relying more on savings based economy, also skews capitalism. The encouragement of consumer debt for increasing consumption, thus production and profits, puts the ultimate burden on the consumer in the form of loan interests. Adding a savings margin on wages would help, instead, the accumulation of capital. The claim that free market controls itself with a natural equilibrium mechanism has been proven not to be true. An important public matter like economy should not be left entirely in the hands of the corporate world. Capitalism needs to be redefined for the benefit of the people, not of the capitalist.
The Illusion of Self-governance (2013)
It took more than 200 years to get religion out of governance (in Britain, France, and US) after people first revolted against the religious authority in the 16th century Europe. Then the state usurped authority for about 150 years. People’s right over governance became an internationally accepted principle in mid 20th century. But, once again, the authority fell in the hands of the next power center, corporations. The obstacles in the way of people power may be the current type of education and the uncontrolled population growth. Decentralization of administration to the extent appropriate and possible, exclusion of all power groups (like special interest groups, religious and political groups) from influencing administration, inclusion of humanities education in the system, and control of unwieldy population growth may be the solution.
After Brexit (2016)
The British achieved some “firsts” in history that contributed to global modernization. Their recent voting for Brexit, and immediately thereafter protesting against it make us to rethink. Brexit having been well-debated, there is no point in protesting it. The British need to look into a simple procedural matter that mislead and misleads the democratic world, the traditional practice of what constitutes the majority. 50+% practiced in all fields in the name of democracy is in fact an unfair and irrational practice. For close to 50% of the people are left disappointed, alienated, or ignored through this practice. The requirement of a 70% majority, at the least, would be more just and rational. I invite the British to use this opportunity for scoring another first in bettering our lives by leading such a change. This change may reduce the number of social unrests in many societies caused by dissatisfied masses under “democratic majoritarianism /totalitarianism”.
Mutating Democracy (2016)
Democratic practice introduced political parties. Parties promoted group interests; the result was divisions in public, acrimonious elections, and national interests taking the back seat. After the emergence of the social media, citizens became more involved in daily politics. While this is a development towards true democracy it gave a forum to unscrupulous interference in elections. Formal publication of current social and economic data as fodder for elections may help citizens to make better educated decisions as well as help campaigns focus on issues. Reconsideration of the rule of "majority" from 50+% to 75% may also help minimize post-election dissatisfaction.
From "Democracy" to "Demoncracy" (2020)
In the absence of rational thinking and humanistic morals prevailing in a society, Demos creates Demogorgans, which brings chaos.
A Messy Experiment: American Practice of Democracy (2020)
Whenever a political incident erupts in the U.S. serious enough to bring forth a national question about the strength of democracy, many believe that it is because democracy is an experiment.  This is an irresponsible attitude for members of a "demos" in charge of the maintenance of democracy.  Proper education and information of public on civic and political matters is fundamental for the success of democracy. Not to take seriously the impeachment of the President for illegal actions is not right. Even the Constitution may be amended to improve election procedures by clarifying the state and federal functions in the process, and revisiting "separation of powers" provisions.
Reclaiming Democracy (2022)
Democracy's replacement with autocratic regimes in several countries, including the attempts in the U.S., rings alarm bells surrounding the globe. Infirmities of democracy are inherent. Economic and social inequalities as well as unenlightened citizenry trigger attacks on democracy, which usually leads to populism, a precursor of autocracy. Conservative politics take advantage of these events. Remedying inequalities and ensuring public education are necessary to counter the rising populism.


Universal Civilization and Western Globalization
International Migration (2013)
There has been an upsurge of social unrest since WWII, causing international migration. One reason may be that the international instruments about human rights include the right of movement of people, but do not distinguish between different types of migration and do not specify the kinds of rights appropriate for each type. The main reason for social friction between migrants and hosts may be more cultural –religious- than any other difference; especially, when the number of migrants of the same culture reaches a “critical mass”. At that point, migrant community’s demands for equal treatment of their cultural values upset the social cohesion in the host society. Labor (economic) migration’s alleged benefits are also questionable. Migrant workers simply exchange their low economic condition at their country of origin with the one in the host country. Thus, they become a heavy burden on the social assistance funds of the host. Remedial policies like diversity, citizenship rights, and integration inherently emphasize the social differences. Domestically legislating and internationally regulating rights specific to the status of each migrant category may help alleviate the social upheaval caused by international migration.
Civilization Queried (2015)
Civilization is not equivalent of culture or of modernity; it is not limited in place or time. It is an human intuition, it develops with rational input, and it is dynamic and global. The contemporary civilization does not meet the standards expected from the long history of humanity. This failure may be due to a) the specialization in education that chased away humanistic social education, education of rationality and of the humanity’s general environment; b) business and political practices that cause social alienation by race, belief, sex, etc.; and c) the uncontrolled population growth. Interactions between societies that helped civilizational progress in the past were events driven by force, like wars, missionizing, and imperialism. They have been replaced with peaceful means, like globalization, science and technology. We still need to change fundamentally the education system, and to develop further the people power through a borderless civil society network in order to register progress in contemporary civilization.
Atatürk's Thoughts - A Political Philosophy (2017)
Atatürk's statements are widely used by modernist groups in Turkey and recognized internationally as examples of reformist leadership. However, his thoughts were never subjected to a scientific study for political theory. There is an ill-conceived debate over whether he formed an ideology. This article invites a discourse on the claim that his thoughts constitute a political theory, like thoughts and actions of a few reformist leaders in history were debated in the political science circles. This article suggests that Atatürk's thoughts have the distinction of going beyond the generally accepted view that reason is at the center of national freedoms and democracy; his thoughts argue that people educated in thinking globally would, by way of reason, participate in and contribute to the civilization which is common to humanity. Peace and prosperity would not succeed unless it is universal.
Dispassionate and Tepid International Approach to Climate Change (2021)
26th International Conference on Climate Change in Glasgow registered the usual "emergency", "alarm", and "concern" over the state of climate change, and tepidly "called for financial help to fight the change", "intention to phase down" use of coal, and "called for forestation" (emphasis added). There are many United Nations system organizations action oriented and some with enforcement authority. The adverse effects of climate change discussed internationally since 1979 can be controlled
Is there a way to stop Putin's Madness (2022) by empowering the UN Environmental Protection Agency with standards checking and enforcing authority.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine is to avenge the dissolution of the communist empire and the Warsaw Pact with the 1990 Final Settlement signed by the Communist regime, while leaving NATO flourishing. True to Russia's historical international policy he wants to expand its territory as a strategic trump to renegotiate the international power balance. Unless he is forced to withdraw to 1991 borders and have the Russian people's representatives also included in signing a peace agreement, Russia will in the future use bridgeheads like Moldova, Kosovo, Baltics, North Pole and beyond for senseless expansion.
Looking at the United Nations Universe Through Clearer Lenses (2022)
Negative public perception of the UN General Conference sessions may be avoided by acquainting the public with the status of the UN in its overall complex system in a simplified manner.
Serbia, Russia's Fifth Column in Europe 
Ethnic and religious kinship between Serbia and Russia gave Russia a political tool for manipulating and exploiting nationalist separatist emotions in the Austrian and Ottoman empires of 19th century so as to ensure the weakness of these two neighboring empires, which produced WWI. This historical policy of Russia was the only winner at the end of the calamitous WWI. Today’s Serbia, although much weakened after the disappearance of Tito’s Yugoslavia, is still holding Damocles’ sword over Bosnia and Kosovo. NATO and EU assign a low priority to this problem. Not to repeat the mistake of similar  delay in Ukraine, Serbia can be stopped from harassing its neighbors by simply expediting Bosnia and Kosovo's membership in NATO and EU.
The Missing Element for the Success of the UN Sustainable Development Program
The UN Sustainable Development program is expected to publish in September 2023 its second quadrannual report of "assessment of assessments" regarding the progress made in the implementation of the program. The First report in 2019 did not consider the effects of domestic and international unrest and violence on development efforts, the necessity of which had been recognized in the foundational documents of UNSDG and in some scholarly studies of progress, although never integrated in the program. The present article suggests the integration of the political science theory of “prosperity may be achieved only with peace”.
A politically just reprisal to Putin’s assault on Ukraine
The ongoing war will end inevitably with a negotiated compromise. For a negotiation to begin Ukraine must win back at least the Russian occupied land corridor to Crimea, and countries that did not lend their support to Ukraine, including China, to join in demanding the negotiation. This can be achieved if the Western rhetoric in justifying their support of Ukraine is made in a clear and objective language by changing it from "defending the rule of law" to "defending the internationally agreed principles of peace and sovereignty". The call for peace negotiation should not be a Western block call, but an international call putting Russia in isolation.

US domestic issues
Some Problems Imbedded in the Constitution (2003)
There are two subjects that linger in the US public debate, presumably arising from the ambiguities in the Constitution: the right to bear arms, and the separation of Church and State. The former seems to have been adopted to arm the States’ security forces against the Federal Government, a reflection of the circumstances in 1791. Those circumstances have changed dramatically; the Second Amendment can now be repealed, as Amendment XVIII was repealed for the embarrassment it caused. No international convention on rights mentions arm ownership as a right. As to the separation of Church and State, only the federal state is prohibited to legislate religion. Amendment X that regulates the powers of States may be interpreted to allow States to legislate religion. A new amendment could eliminate this potentially dangerous ambiguity, and could have also the benefit of clearing the debate over the separation issue.
Is some Religion Running in your Arteries? (2011)
(See under 3 above)
“United States” of America v. united citizens of America (2016)
The reality behind the surprise results of the 2016 US presidential election is the Constitutional provision the electoral votes supersede the popular votes, because the president is of "the United States", literally (of the Union), not of the people of the United States. The results would not be so frustrating for the people if this Constitutional reality were accurately and clearly reflected in the election process. The false impression created among the people by election organizers, parties, candidates, and the media that the president is elected by the people leads to frustrations at times of discrepancy between the electoral and popular votes.
A Clarion Call to American Democracy (2017)
2016 presidential voters, who consider themselves patriotic and “exceptionalist” elected the candidate who ran a contemptuous and combative campaign. The rest of the voters thought that this style was specific to the campaign. However, his and his team’s post-election performance continues in the campaign mode, giving no indication that they are capable of changing to the presidential mode. If this attitude of superiority complex continues during the presidency, it may alienate even those who voted for him. We can only expect that democracy itself may repair its own messiness. 
Rudderless Flagship (2020)
The U.S.'s all kinds of resources and world events brought it to the world's leadership position. She has to meet that expectation. She failed to do so a few times. It was not because of the leader the American people chose, but the people themselves. The American public is introvert, they are preoccupied with domestic problems of their making. For one, they are prejudiced to preserving local authority, but expect assistance from the federal administration, although they are distrustful of the central authority. This creates waste of resources and disfunction. The public has to be better educated and informed to have wider view of events, to have courage to face past mistakes and not to hesitate to make the necessary changes.
The Changing American Social Character (2020)
The approaching end of the Presidential term made topical the concerns, both national and international, about the consequences of his chaotic administration. The real action to take is for the American public to have a hard soul searching about the state of the society's social character. World events, especially after WWII, brought the U.S. to the world's leadership position. While this responsibility helped the U.S. to become economically stronger, it also had a negative effect, like self-righteousness (exceptionalism), superiority complex (arrogance). Internationally, the credibility in her leadership suffered. Nationally, the society divided in two factions: those who do not see or admit the negative effects, and those who see the need for change. The former wants to continue the status quo by the force of a religious/nationalist populism; the latter calls for rationalism.
The Sequel on the Challenges to American Democracy (2021)
Anachronic provisions of the Constitution need to be addressed: 1. The three branches of the government are supposed to be separate but equal; but they are not. 2. The authority of individual States in organizing the national elections derogates from the true reflection of the will of the people.
The Land of Hate (2021)
This is a country where about 40% of the people hate many things, and love all the wrong things.
The Dilemma of the American Democracy (2022)
Democracy, being a human product is imperfect; but, it evolved along with the evolution of societies, We need improvements in the front-end of election procedures to better reflect people's will, and in the back-end to ensure the deliverance of people's will. The majoritarian system does not seem to provide a totally fair election results (a few States have been introducing new methods to address this issue). The "consociational" system practiced by some countries seem to help a better expression of people's will. As to the deliverance of the people's will after elections, a proper checks and balances system between the "separate but equal" branches of government may be the answer. The U.S. election system is convoluted, disenfranchising the less powerful groups of the society. Some Constitutional changes are required, but the public mentally and the Constitution itself literally are not conducive to changes.
Ma(g)a L(oc)o (2022)
The 2015 election results were the reaction by the white supremacist faction of the society to the Presidency of a black man. But, the administration of the populist faction could not deliver but a chaotic performance because of lack of "knowledgeable" officials. Their response to much deserved defeat for re-election was the use of treacheries and even force typical to "unknowledgeable" crowds. They are regrouping their illegal means to win the next elections. They succeeded in conquering a political party from within and benefit from the democratic system to occupy key positions for the next elections.

Friday, June 9, 2023

 

A politically just reprisal to Putin’s assault on Ukraine

 

How a war ends is unpredictable, but evidently the era in which the powerful attacker won over the smaller or failing nations is over. In the present time where there are international agreements or, in their absence, international norms regarding rights and obligations of states, the attacked nation musters national courage and international support to defend itself based on those agreements and norms. In other words, the attacker’s action is now illegitimate, and the attacked’s defense garners international backing. This is the result of having advanced in the journey towards the civilizational pinnacle. Hence, in the ongoing Russian invasion, Ukrainian defense has the better chance of winning. The emphasis of success here is in the concept of defense. So far as Ukraine fights for defending its land and recovering what has been invaded, she will have the will to fight and will have the support of members of the international community. Ukraine’s unexpected will to resist and the material and/or rhetorical support by many in the international community is a testament to this forecast.

 Nevertheless, there are several states that consider that Putin’s attack on Ukraine was brought on by the Western block’s extension of its economic supremacy to the unwelcome strategic and political fields (NATO and EU). They withhold their support to Ukraine on that premise. Whereas the West’s position is that its support and assistance to Ukraine is not for supremacy, but for “the defense of the rule of law”. Yet, many states refrain from lending their support. This contrariness is understandable for those who are politically or economically beholden to Russia. The appreciation of the reasons why the West’s position is not found believable by the rest may help the West in the way it will handle the future of this war.

 The West’s position expressed as “the defense of the rule of law” rings hollow for at least two reasons. It is too imprecise as to which rule of law is meant by it. And it leaves a condescending echo on the less powerful countries in question because of their historical sensitivities towards the occasional discrepancies between the West’s rhetoric and action. “Defense of rule of law” raises questions: Is the referenced law a Western law, and who authorized the West to enforce the law?

It is commonplace that leaders need knowledge, power, and authority to lead. Followers recognize leadership because they are less powerful, not necessarily less knowledgeable; they do not want to follow by force or deceit, but with dignity, as part of the process, not as a thrall. Therefore, the US would be more persuasive in relations if she were to keep the discourse within international terms and avoid giving the appearance of national interests and bullying. There is no need to reaffirm national interests. Negotiators of all sides in foreign relations keep that factor in mind even if it is not expressed.  

It is important to bear in mind in all dealings with countries that emerged after WWII not to have national or Western political and/or strategic motives, or if there are such motives to be truthful about them. This is necessitated by the fact that several European countries have bad colonial reputations, and the US has lost her benevolent-power accolade she got right after WWII as a result of her numerous but some unnecessary and failed, interventions since. Not only US diplomacy also US politicians and media have to stop: 1- the constant boasting of greatness, exceptionalism, supremacy, and power, in order to avoid being blamed with bullying, righteousness and condescension when the time comes for need for international support; 2- the analyzing and judging international matters and discourse against the US criteria, culture, and interests, in order to avoid the perception or misinterpretation for an ideological or political motive.

Therefore, it would help if West would make it clear that assistance to Ukraine is for “the defense of internationally agreed peace and sovereignty principles”*; not for the establishment of a certain regime in Ukraine, nor is it for strategic advantage. The reason for following the West would then be clear to all concerned. The mistaken perception about Western hidden agenda would be overcome. More importantly, such rhetoric will make those states inclusive in the process, thus rendering legitimacy to their decision to participate. Let us not forget that all countries, big or small, right or left, want “peace and sovereignty”.

 As to ending the ongoing war, the parameters of a feasible, realistic end are as follows: 1- A decisive military defeat by, a change of heart or an internal uprising in Russia which will ensue withdrawal from the territory it invaded is unrealistic. A complete withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine to the borders that it agreed to in 1994 Budapest Memorandum would mean its acceptance of a complete defeat by -what turned out to be- the paper tiger; although this (in addition to war reparations for the vast devastation it caused) would be the most just resolution of the assault perpetrated by Russia. It is equally unrealistic to expect a complete military victory by Ukraine, i.e. for her to reoccupy and hold the entire invaded territory within a short period without losing much more life and treasure.

2-     The only alternative seems to be a negotiated compromise in which Russia will gain less territory than what it set out to gain but at a cost of paying hefty reparations and war crime sentences, and Ukraine will lose less territory than it would have otherwise, at a gain of even better value of NATO and EU membership (which Russia used as an excuse for its folly in the first place).

3-     Such negotiation will be possible only if and when Ukraine firmly reoccupies the entire land corridor to Crimea which Russia allegedly annexed, and it stops short of reoccupying Crimea. It cannot expect to reoccupy Crimea as Putin would do anything to hold on to it, despite the fact that the international law is on the side of Ukraine.

4-     A negotiated settlement regarding Crimea, preferably, may only refer to that land as the 2014 fait accompli (or some other ambiguous statement) without expressly assigning any status to Crimea (an ambiguity carries a hope that a future opportunity may open a possible way out from the mistake the West made by not having acted decisively in 2014). A provision for the repatriation of Crimean Tatars and the return of previous Ukrainian habitants on grounds of human rights and dignity would be very important.

5-     A formally declared request and support for negotiation of as many as possible members of the international community (prominently with the inclusion of China, which is very likely) will be sine qua non of the success of such a settlement, The call for peace negotiation should not appear as a Western block call, but an international call putting Russia in isolation. Such request and support may be achieved through a UNGA resolution tasking the Security Council with it.

           

*  Like the UN Charter of 1945, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 recognizing the independence of Ukraine in exchange of desisting her nuclear weapons, 1997 Cooperation and Security Agreement Between NATO and Russia, the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) of 1990 from which Russia withdrew after 2014.                                                                                      

 June 9, 2023