Posts
Syria
Unlike
most of Bush era blunders in international affairs and ensuing disasters for
the majority of the world, the Greater Middle East Project (GMEP) concocted by
his like-minded advisors thankfully disappeared without materializing, thus
without causing further damage to the world. Cruel Arab terrorism, which is
motivated by the senseless Arab hatred of the dominance of the Western culture,
gave the excuse for Pres. Bush to open war in Iraq . The GMEP was declared to
spread democracy throughout the Muslim world, with the wishful thinking that
democracy would moderate Islam. Whereas, the invasion of Iraq and the GMEP meant for Muslims
bringing the Muslim world within the Western fold. Public uprisings from
Mashrik to Magrib brought Muslim fundamentalists to power, of which the GMEP
intended to deprive them. Now, the Western powers rightly and cautiously approach Arab uprising with a ten-foot pole. As unrest is boiling on the last portion
of Arab lands, Syria, the West is wandering what to do about the future of
Syria. In order for the solution not to be once again a hurried compromise, an
instinctive reaction, and in the interest of only certain groups, the solution
has to focus -in contrast to GMEP- on the realities and facts of the area in
question.
The realities of the Arab ME are:
1-
None of the Arab countries in the area has a national,
economic and political history. They have been all artificially created
deliberately in a fractured manner by the British in order to end the Ottoman
dominance in the area and to establish Western control over oil after WWI. They
are all small oil sheikdoms along the Gulf, including, yes, Saudi Arabia .
They are all administered like big oil consortia. Therefore, their stability is
secured with business interests. Iraq will be inevitably divided in
two small oil states, not as sheikdoms but nevertheless run in the style of
Arab oil states, Kurdish in the north and Shi-ite in the east and south. Small
state with stability brought by oil prosperity is the model and destiny of the
peoples of this area. A Kurdish state will easily succeed not only because the
prosperity that its oil reserves will bring, but the social bond they have in
nationalism. Shi-ites of Eastern-Southern Iraq could fall prey to Iran if the
latter continues to be aggressive, because of the common borders and religion
of the two peoples. However, this question may be turned into a bargaining
point for inviting Iran
to the ME peace table.
2-
Israel ,
the latest addition to the area also through British machinations, is well
established with nationalist, economic and political structures, and the
international support. Israel is not only stable, it is also determined to be, generally
recognized to be, and will undoubtedly remain the dominant power in the area.
3-
Turkey
and Iran ,
the only non-Arab countries, in a more general overview of the area as Muslim
countries, have a long history of national, economic and political existence.
They are powers to be reckoned with, although the British attempted many times
to manipulate them as well. While Turkey
manages to keep an even keel while navigating in the choppy waters of the ME, Iran is clearly the anti-thesis of the Arab, and
even of all the Sunni Muslim ME, as well as of Israel . Being a cornerstone state
of the ME, Iran
wants, and also deserves to contribute to the life, sustainability, economy,
thus peace of the region. Iran should be invited to do so on the condition of
dropping for good all its antagonism towards all countries of the ME.
4-
Egypt ,
Jordan , Lebanon , and Syria have not found their grounds
in their relatively short existence. They are still in flux because
they lack a social bond, and do not have enough political experience or oil either. Egypt being the
largest and having the oldest political life among the Arab states may
eventually find its own way. It is difficult, however, to forecast its
direction between Turkish style religious democracy at best and Saudi style
religious autocracy at worst. Jordan was not affected by serious public unrest thus far, but we cannot state with certainty that Jordan is a stable country. Its
fortune depends on the final solution for the ME in general, and on the
Palestinian settlement in particular, because of its 1985 declaration to seek
confederation with the future Palestinian State.
5-
The world is focused now on Syria where a sectarian
unrest is taking place. Unrest became chronic in neighboring Lebanon , intermittently in the last
almost fifty years. Since there is no national,
social, economic support, bond, or justification to uphold these countries,
secterian differences are fanned occasionally by outside forces (for whatever reason). Russia
always wanted access to the ME. Soviets established close relations with Egypt and Syria; those countries
estranged themselves from the West and took a socialist path. Russia established a naval base in Syria .
Though not mentioned by politicians and the media, this is the main factor why
the West does not want to intervene now in the Syrian internal conflict. Lebanon and Syria cannot survive on their own
feet. They are failed states like Iraq, not only because of their inability
to govern, but because of interventions by the international community that created them. Like
in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon witnessed series of coups and wars with neighbors
since their inceptions in 1932 for Iraq and 1946 for the other two. It is therefore
now the responsibility of the international community to help bring peace and prosperity to these
peoples. It is an illusion to think that a post-Assad Syria can regroup to last as a stable state. No government will succeed in Syria in the
absence of a bonding element in its society. We learned that Shi-ites do not
want to be governed by Sunnis, Sunnis do not want to be ruled by Shi-ites for
whatever reason, as we have also seen in Bahrain ’s uprisings. The similar state of
affairs in after-Saddam Iraq
must have taught us something.
A free zone idea may be novel and beyond
what the international community is currently considering, but no palliative will
bring a lasting peace to an area of states historically proven to be weak and
unstable because of their artificial (lacking a social bond to hold a state
strong) existence. Unless, of course, the international community enjoys the continuing
spectacle of human and treasure losses in the ME. A serious and sincere attempt
to find a lasting solution for this sore spot of the planet requires tackling a
bold idea, and courageous action. Lebanese and Syrian people will forget their
sectarian differences in the prosperity generated and secured by the interests
of all parties concerned in the neighborhood. What will be left of Iraq will be
free of Iranian threat. Russia will be satisfied for having a permanent
position in a financial and trade center for the region it has long been
interested in. Iran
will be satisfied by having an opening to the world trade. Israel , having
secured its northern borders, may be more willing to turn to its southern
security and recognize a Palestinian state. Consequently, Jordan will also find a more stable
and secure existence.
* In both senses
of the word, “consolidated” and “agreed”.
May 8, 2013
